Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 75604.509443 79895.985445 84192.462310 88813.606908 93640.286882 98529.766202 103854.172035
2025-12-07 68816.479996 75374.308845 82128.310919 89594.669981 97607.566821 105939.101591 115247.200631
2025-12-14 63471.554206 71533.585451 80025.184777 89616.421534 100128.579358 111279.605774 123982.580352
2025-12-21 59526.983863 68718.501254 78583.275628 89926.042454 102574.884028 116213.160234 131996.266988
2025-12-28 57080.937964 67274.441813 78392.549831 91372.425633 106060.522844 122116.363398 140943.466590
2026-01-04 54774.611478 65781.809417 77963.858950 92381.570487 108911.533091 127202.095835 148900.271831
2026-01-11 52561.926947 64235.341783 77330.142311 93024.024451 111233.462473 131606.576313 156030.576893
2026-01-18 50301.322822 62497.030247 76353.065577 93156.338427 112871.885996 135158.120443 162136.671531
2026-01-25 48317.767781 60975.703152 75530.163984 93376.300835 114534.223999 138679.942553 168172.911217
2026-02-01 46337.492510 59361.315860 74509.728635 93281.112843 115757.115002 141639.645411 173522.800496
2026-02-08 44944.396627 58386.698093 74189.614569 93963.748945 117856.643646 145599.237227 180038.690003
2026-02-15 43250.133684 56970.573098 73271.856216 93866.477928 118973.898401 148363.417163 185123.094234
2026-02-22 42343.270806 56506.637584 73501.405594 95165.191036 121795.770401 153202.192286 192758.112840
2026-03-01 41263.133479 55782.730211 73376.755564 96003.698565 124046.051547 157360.941411 199606.314258
2026-03-08 39859.378573 54595.438328 72629.475878 96029.414359 125267.576366 160258.316368 204929.372399
2026-03-15 38686.019276 53657.472105 72153.835246 96357.652691 126835.429214 163562.947000 210750.603261
2026-03-22 38139.407723 53502.902744 72646.346968 97888.170544 129894.273128 168702.526408 218846.832101
2026-03-29 37419.763566 53092.492628 72788.365864 98955.806528 132364.546313 173121.681078 226079.180635
2026-04-05 36570.646212 52479.968446 72643.881229 99635.423444 134332.030930 176916.565261 232554.080833
2026-04-12 35534.714016 51584.117506 72101.462968 99775.385374 135593.928205 179822.408400 237927.078378
2026-04-19 34589.446819 50779.027033 71649.664281 100008.055246 136956.562682 182847.293530 243455.976585
2026-04-26 33553.260931 49818.264735 70963.403739 99907.369054 137869.208302 185293.253037 248257.513063
2026-05-03 32894.533921 49352.318304 70914.449124 100629.412840 139838.983431 189081.974052 254775.029346